Climate Change Negotiations
The problem is not so much Big Carbon as it is dedicated environmentalists. They have not been able to agree on anything substantial in 30 years. There are three reasons for this impasse (see also carbon price.com):
- Environmentalists are trapped by their moralistic command-and-control thinking.
- Economists are trapped by their fixation on narrowly defined efficiency.
- The resulting negotiation game is a prisoner’s dilemma with 100+ prisoners.
Consequently, the Paris climate conference in 2015 will fail (China’s pledge shows zero ambition, and the US pledge is flimsy). [This was written in 2016 and is still true.] Environmentalists and economists have the best of intentions, but the consequences can still be tragic. Fortunately, the three top US climate economists are now pointing the way out of this impasse, and the World Bank is not far behind in advocating a carbon price. The essential breakthrough has two parts.
- First, realize that if you need a strong outcome, one price is much easier to negotiate than 100 quantities.
- Second, realize that price does not mean cap-and-trade and it does not mean carbon tax. It just means price.
So we should stop the cap-vs-tax fight — just have all countries agree on one price. Then let them implement that price the way they want to.
For an in-depth view of these ideas, see Carbon-Price.com. (spoiler alert: the three top climate economists are Nordhaus, Stiglitz, and Weitzman (now deceased.)