Carbonomics
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The Copenhagen Climate-Change Summit 2009
Steven Stoft
 
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Copenhagen Climate-Change Summit Dec. 7-19, 2009
Poor countries have rejected caps. Policy, not science, is the key to Copenhagen.
 
 
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Policies and emissions. Also, how to download country positions from the U.N.
 
 
  Why Is Copenhagen in Trouble?
This was foreseen and explained by Stiglitz (a liberal US Nobel economist) in 2007. Carbonomics explained Stiglitz and also what to do about the problem in 2008.
The trouble is caps. They seem good, but they are unfair to poor countries. But the U.S. Congress will not pass a cap unless China and India accept one, and they won't. A cap on India would be only half as high as US emissions in 1880. Emission offsets, even ones that are only promises, provide perverse incentives and cause a War over Caps.
There's a better way. This paper shows how to let countries have a choice. China and India could tax gasoline and coal, while the US and Europe could have caps. Plus it shows how to make a fair Green Fund that would pay for the burden of India's carbon tax. That paper is for those working on climate policy. Here's a free short book for the general public, that explains the same thing.
The idea is that all countries should put in "effort" proportional to how much the emit. So the international agreement might be "each country must put a $30 price on carbon emission." Of course they would keep the revenues. The carbon price could be the price of allowances under cap and trade or the carbon tax rate, or a "feebate" that puts a "fee" on low-mileage cars and gives a rebate to high mileage cars. Countries have flexibility.
Table 1 Carbon Cost Green Fund Total Cost
India  0.8 1.7 0.9
China  4.1  0.0  4.1
U.S. 16.4  6.6 23.0
Table 1 show how cheap this would be in cents per person per day. This is because countries keep the "tax" revenues. The table assumes a $30/tonne price on carbon emissions and a $2/tonne Green Fund incentive. That incentive makes high emission countries pay $2/tonne for their emissions above the global average. It pays low emission countries the same for emissions below the average. Of course $30 and $2 could be changed however Copenhagen decided.  This is incredibly cheap for an excellent start.
 
 
Copenhagen is headed for disaster. Like Kyoto, it's stuck on caps, but poor countries reject them. There's a better path, but the rich think caps are essential, and the poor think they will make a lot of money if the rich keep thinking that. These pages explain how to think our way out of this box.  ... more >>
1. China, India, etc. have rejected caps.
2. They emit over half of GHGs. Their half is growing 7 times faster.
3. Nothing within the Kyoto Protocol can work, since caps have failed.
4. Kyoto was right commitments are essential.
5. With quantity commitment ruled out Carbon Pricing remains.

June 29, 2009.
How Offsets Defeated the Kyoto Protocol (6 pg. PDF)
June 29, 2009. Flexible Global Carbon Pricing (PDF) An upgrade for the Kyoto Protocol allows both carbon caps and taxes, and includes enforcement and financial help.
 
 
 
Beyond-Kyoto-cover-186
Beyond Kyoto:
Flexible Carbon Pricing for Global Cooperation

November 17, 2009. A new short book explains what to do now that cap-and-trade has hit a dead end at Copenhagen. Read the abstract and download it at SSRN
Also visit the new website on how to set a global carbon price. The trouble with Copenhagen is not a disagreement over the need for strong policy, as environmentalists seem to think. The problem is that the world cannot agree on how too cooperate. The roadblocks are costs and fairness. US Policy is not helping.
 
 


http://stoft.com/p/130.html | 04/17/14 21:42 GMT
Modified: Sat, 19 Dec 2009 07:39:54 GMT
 
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China and India have nixed caps. Without these caps, Kyoto fails. What can be done?
Carbonomics explains "wrecking" the economy, "peak oil," caps, carbon taxes, and Kyoto.
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