Carbonomics
National and International Energy Policy
Power System Economics 		Steven  Stoft
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Prospects for a Hydrogen Economy
  
    
Research & Development in the U.S. for a Hydrogen Economy (4/page PDF)
Slides, Steven Stoft, April, 2008, Madrid, Spain. (same, but 1/page))

References:
Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership: Second Report,  From the National Academy of Sciences and Engineering, 2008

Hydrogen Fuel Initiative From the Government Accountability Office, Jan. 2008.

US DOE Hydrogen Posture Plan, December, 2006.

The Hydrogen Economy, from The National Academies, February, 2004.
 
  
  Prospects for a Hydrogen Economy -- Based on US DOE Research

Overview: DOE is unlikely to meet its goals for commercial hydrogen-car technology in 2015. Hydrogen will probably not reduce CO2 emissions noticeably for at least three decades.

DOE has made two claims regarding technical progress. (1) Fuel cells could be produced with current technology at a cost of $100/kW, or $2,400 for an 80kW fuel cell for a standard car. (2) Hydrogen fuel stations can provide hydrogen for a cost of $3/kg (equivalent to $3/gallon of gas). The H2 is produced from natural gas with a 70% efficiency.

Both claims are dubious. Fuel cell costs are based on a hypothetical 500,000 unit/year factory, yet not one of these fuel cells has been produced. The H2 fueling station costs were based on selling electric power from spare hydrogen at a retail price of 8 cents/kWh. Only one station is in operation and it had filled H2 tanks less then 10 times when the report was written.

The $100/kW fuel cell had only 1/4 the required durability according to the National Academy, and a $30/kW fuel cell is needed according to DOE. Assuming the actual cost would be at least $200/kW from a real factory, present fuel-cell costs are 2 x 4 x 3.3, or 26 times too high. H2 Fuel tanks do not currently come close to DOE's specifications.
 

  


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