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Claim 1: Initially, over three quarters of the “total abatement cost” will go toward
              buying foreign “offsets,”

Based on slide 18 of EPA-1. Backcasting from 2015 is required and provided in a spreadsheet, but the 2015 values tell most of the story. There are three components to Abatement costs, and these are estimated by two models:
Model:ADAGE. IGEM .
Domestic Covered Abatement Cost$4$5
Domestic Offset Abatement Cost$2$1
International Credit Payments$17$16
In both models the total domestic cost is $6 billion $(2005).
International Credit Payments cover the cost of foreign offsets, and the average prediction is $16.5B.  So the percent foreign = 16.5/(6+16.5) = 74%.
Because of the more rapid upward trend in domestic costs, this value is 77% in 2012.

References:
EPA-1, April 20, 2009. Preliminary Analysis of the, Waxman-Markey Discussion Draft.

 


http://stoft.com/p/123.html | 03/12/10 12:57 GMT
Modified: Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:12:42 GMT
 
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