History is the key. In 1980, the Saudi’s oil minister, Yamani, warned OPEC it was trying to keep the price too high. They didn’t listen, and all agreed to cut production. The Saudis did, but the rest cheated. To hold their cartel together, the Saudis cut supply even more than promised, but the high price reduced demand and called forth North Sea and Alaskan oil. By 1985, the Saudi’s were pumping at about 30% of capacity and [Read more…]
Climate negotiations are a sort of prisoner’s dilemma, so we need to find a way to change the game or change the outcome of a prisoner’s dilemma. Hofstadter proposes that if we can induce players to be “super-rational” we may get a more cooperative outcome. Does this make sense? [Read more…]
Had the players noticed the red flag thrown onto the climate field shortly before the Lima conference, they might not have continued to play a meaningless game. The flag was the joint US-China climate pledge, which will cover 40% of global emissions under the upcoming Paris agreement.
The US pledge is a mere aspiration, and China’s pledge, as explained below, shows no climate ambition whatsoever. [Read more…]